Knowing in Advance When an Evolutionary Outer Loop Will Not Help: A Pre-Registered Cheap-Baseline Screening Rule

We introduce a pre-registered screening rule that decides, before any implementation, whether an evolutionary / population / lifecycle outer loop over neural-network parameters or structure is worth building. Such outer loops cost 10^2-10^3x their gradient inner loop, yet whether they beat a cheap single-shot alternative is usually discovered only after the expense is paid. Our rule computes, at a Phase-0 gate, a single number: the recovery R = s/G, the best single-shot gradient/curvature statistic's gain s divided by the best gain G of any cheap method evaluated, and prescribes skipping the o