Read original ↗
newsReddit r/MachineLearningTrust 52 · CommunityPublished 24d agoLive · 24d ago

A 35%-accurate model that still ranked well, and adding more features made it worse (point-in-time equity backtest) [P]

I built a calibrated predictive model on point-in-time fundamentals and two results surprised me enough to write up. Sharing the project and the method, happy to have the methodology picked apart. Setup: ~250 S&P 500 companies graded from their 10-K filings on qualitative factors (moat, market position, leadership, capital allocation). Grading is point-in-time, the grader sees only the filing for that vintage, across 2014/2017/2020. Index membership r

Why these links exist

Every edge carries a method, confidence, and the source snippet that justified it — so bad links are debuggable.

Covers

Covers (incoming)

Related across the graph