Efficient Sequential Calibration with $O(T^{2/3-ε})$ Error Bound
We study the online binary sequential calibration problem. A recent breakthrough by \citet{dagan2024breaking} overcomes the classical \(T^{2/3}\) barrier for calibration error. Building on this result, we present an efficient randomized forecaster that achieves an expected calibration error \(O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})\) for some constant \(\varepsilon>0\). Our forecaster combines the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure \citep{dagan2024breaking} with an outer Blackwell-style correction layer. The \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure controls calibration with respect to a surrogate sequence of condi
Lineage graph
Paper → model → repo connections mined from source citations (Tier-1 exact match).
Why these links exist
Every edge carries a method, confidence, and the source snippet that justified it — so bad links are debuggable.
- LinkedLinked via arxiv author · 85%Zihan Zhang →
“Efficient Sequential Calibration with $O(T^{2/3-ε})$ Error Bound”