How Much Do RF Drone Benchmarks Overstate? A Controlled Study and Theory of Data Leakage in UAV Signal Identification

Radio-frequency (RF) sensing is a central modality for counter-unmanned-aerial-system (counter-UAS) defence because it exploits the control, telemetry, and video links between a drone and its operator. Reported accuracies for RF-based drone detection and identification are often very high, but many are obtained using cross-validation that splits a small number of continuous recordings into short segments. This can place near-duplicate slices of the same recording in both training and test partitions, creating data leakage. We study this leakage problem through theory and measurement. We form