Predictive Conformal Slip Monitoring: An Empirical Evaluation of Rolling Split Conformal Prediction for Pre-Incident Traction Loss Detection

Conventional traction control architectures intervene only after the adhesion limit of a tire has already been breached. This paper investigates whether Rolling Split Conformal Prediction , monitoring the volatility of non-conformity residuals from a per-driver Random Forest model of expected slip behavior , can serve as a statistically grounded pre-incident warning signal, ahead of gross traction loss. Unlike an earlier internal draft of this work, the evaluation reported here corrects a confound in the slip proxy (vehicle speed is included as an explicit model feature, not left implicit in t